Week eight is upon us and we’re looking to keep up the momentum from last week’s success. We went 8-4 ATS and the NAP landed again to make it 5 out of 6. Another big week could be on the cards, with some interesting matchups in play. We have good against bad, divisional matchups and struggling offences looking to get right. I think the Patriots v Chargers and Bucs v Saints will be great games to watch, and hopefully we’ll call them right as well. The Bengals on the handicap is my NAP of the week, something I never thought I’d be saying.

I also have a great feeling about the €5 to €500 challenge this week, but I can’t explain why. Kind of like when you step up to a 20ft put and feel like you’re going to make it on the rare occasion.

Up Limerick.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets: Bengals -10 (NAP)

Bengals:

• Current Record: 5-2 (3-1 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 369.6 (13th) // Passing – 262.7 (13th) // Rushing – 106.9 (18th)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 339.9 (10th) // Passing – 245.9 (17th) // Rushing – 94.0 (7th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.0 (7th) // PPG Allowed – 18.3 (5th)
• Injury Report (Out): Chris Evans.
• Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread in their last five away games.
• The total has gone under in four of Cincinnati’s last five games.

Jets:

• Current Record: 1-5 (1-1 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 272.3 (31st) // Passing – 200.3 (29th) // Rushing – 72.0 (32nd)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 402.5 (27th) // Passing – 275.0 (25th) // Rushing – 127.5) 25th
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 13.3 (32^nd) // PPG Allowed – 29.6 (29th)
• Injury Report (Out): Zach Wilson, Trevon Wesco, Bryce Huff, Corey Davis.
• The Patriots beat the Jets by 39 points last week.
• Mike White starts at QB for the Jets on Sunday – he has played one NFL game and that was last week against the Patriots.

As I am writing this, the spread is at 10. This is only going to go up as the weekend goes on, so get on it while you can. After last week’s performance against the Ravens, the Bengals have shown that they are a real contender for not just the AFC North, but the AFC as a whole. Burrow is playing the best football of his career, Ja’Marr chase has been a revelation and the defence is playing well. On the other side of the match-up, the Jets are being the usual Jets. Their 39-point drubbing last week at the hands of their AFC East rival, was enough to get their usually mellow HC, Robert Salah using profanities in the post-match interview. Zach Wilson is out with his PCL injury, so Mike White is in. Apparently he has been in the league for a few years? It looks like there is no way out for the Jets, so take the Bengals on the spread here.

LA Rams @ Houston Texans: Rams -13.5

Rams:

• Current Record: 6-1 (3-0 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 397.1 (7th)// Passing – 301.7 (3rd) // Rushing – 95.4 (23rd)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 373.9 (21st) // Passing – 262.0 (21st) // Rushing 111.9 (15th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 29.6 (5th) // PPG Allowed – 20.9 (7th)
• Injury Report (Out): Andrew Whitworth, Sebastian Joseph-Day, DeSean Jackson.
• Stafford has a completion % of 90.0 when targeting Kupp on deep pass attempts this season. No other duo has more than 65%.

Texans:

• Current Record: 1-6 (1-2 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 275.1 (30th) // Passing – 194.4 (30th) // Rushing – 80.7(30th)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 392.0 (26th) // Passing – 246.3 (18th) // Rushing – 145.7 (31st)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 13.9 (31st) // PPG Allowed – 29.0 (28th)
• Injury Report (Out): Tyrod Taylor, Laremy Tunsil.

The Texans are beyond finished. They are an absolute shambles and will get obliterated on Sunday night against the Rams. Stafford will have his way with them, just like Kyler did the week before. To make matters worse, the Houston front office traded away our lead back, Mark Ingram during the week. Brandin Cooks was quick to show his displeasure on the matter, tweeting “This is bullshit. Such a joke”. The locker room is in turmoil, and it looks like the Texans are in, lets grab the first pick in the 2022 draft mode.

The Rams weren’t at their best last Sunday against Detroit, but Dan Campbell threw everything but the kitchen sink at them and they still absorbed it. Fake punts, onside kicks, you name it, the Lions tried it. The Texan’s secondary has been solid this season, but Stafford and Kupp are playing at too elite a level for that to be any worry. Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel should complement the passing game well. This should be a blowout.

New England Patriots @ LA Chargers: Chargers -3

Patriots:

• Current Record: 3-4 (2-0 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 355.0 (16th)// Passing – 259.6 (14th) // Rushing – 95.4 (24th)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 350.6 (12th) // Passing – 245.0 (16th) // Rushing 105.6 (11th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 25.6 (11th) // PPG Allowed – 20.0 (6th)
• Injury Report (Out): Brandon King, Chase Winovich, Trent Brown, James White, Johnathan Jones. Lots of players questionable.
• Patriots have won five straight against the Chargers.
• The Patriots shut out the Chargers 45-0 in Week 13 of the 2020 season.
• The Patriots last four wins have come against the Jets & Texans.

Chargers:

• Current Record: 4-2 (2-1 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 377.5 (12th) // Passing – 282.8 (7th) // Rushing – 94.7(25th)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 364.3 (19th) // Passing – 201.8 (4th) // Rushing – 162.5 (32nd)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 24.7 (13th) // PPG Allowed – 25.0 (22nd)
• Injury Report (Out): Bryan Bulaga, Justin Jones.
• The Chargers are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games.
• Justin Herbert has never lost to the same team twice.

It’s always tough backing against Big Ole Billy and the Patriots, but i think I’m going to have to go against him this week. Looking at the data, you would say the Patriots are a nice bet with the handicap, as they are 2-0 away from home and they match-up ok against the Chargers. They also beat the Chargers 45-0 last year, which is a serious hammering, but I don’t see anything close to that happening again this year. The Patriots stats are being propped up by the fact they have played the Jets twice and Texans once. Their last four victories have only come against the Jets & Texans.

The Chargers are coming off their bye week, which means Brandon Staley has locked himself away to come up with the winning game plan. I like Herbert to have a big game, so once the Chargers can slow down the Patriots running game, they should get it done. The only worry is they don’t cover the spread, but I think they will just about do it.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Colts -2.5

Titans:

• Current Record: 5-2 (2-1 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 382.4 (11th)// Passing – 227.0 (25th) // Rushing – 155.4 (3rd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 376.9 (22nd) // Passing – 273.6 (24th) // Rushing 103.3 (9th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.6 (6th) // PPG Allowed – 23.4 (16th).
• Injury Report (Out): Julio Jones, Caleb Farley, Kristian Fulton, Jayon Brown, Rashad Weaver.

Colts:

• Current Record: 3-4 (1-2 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 357.1 (14th) // Passing – 229.6 (22nd) // Rushing – 127.6 (9th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 354.1 (15th) // Passing – 243.1 (13th) // Rushing – 111.0 (14th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 24.1 (15th) // PPG Allowed – 21.3 (11th)
• Indianapolis is Football Outsiders’ top-ranked rush defence (DVOA).
• Injury Report (Out): Julian Blackmon, Parris Campbell, Rodrigo Blankenship, Dayo Odeyingbo.

This game looks notoriously hard to predict, but it’s a very interesting match-up, so think it warrants a full review. If the Titans win this game, they essentially lock up the AFC South moving to 6-2 for the year. This division is a two-horse race, and they’ll extend their lead to three. On the flip side, if the Colts win, they bring the gap back to one and have the Jets and Jaguars coming up in their next two games.

Back in week three, the Titans took home the W, beating the Colts by 25-16 at home. Carson Wentz was on two busted ankles and the Titans defence did extremely well to hold Jonathan Taylor to only 64 rushing yards. King Henry also had a solid game, going for 113 yards off 28 carries. I have a feeling it will be a different story this time around, however. The Colts have picked up their play massively and are rolling in both the passing and rushing games. Carson Wentz has All-Pro guard, Quenton Nelson back and Jonathan Taylor has been unstoppable the last few games. They are also performing very well defensively against the run. This game is going to be really close and looks like a flip of the coin, so I’m going to go with the healthier home team. Colts to win by a field goal, slotted my Michael Badgley who just got signed to the practice squad.

All Sunday/Monday Picks:

• Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: Over 46.5
• Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets: Bengals -10 (NAP)
• LA Rams @ Houston Texans: Rams -13.5
• Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Bills – 13.5
• Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions: Lions +3.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns: Steelers +4.5
• San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears: 49ers – 3
• Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Colts -2.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks: Under 45.5
• New England Patriots @ LA Chargers: Chargers -3
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints: Over 48.5
• Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: Viking -2.5 *Dependent on Dak not playing. If Dak plays, I will switch this to the over 51.5.
• Washington Football Team @ Denver Broncos: WFT +3.5
• New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs – 8.5