2023 US PGA Championship: Preview

by | May 18, 2023 | Golf

Location:

Oak Hill Country Club – East Course.

Last PGA Championship winner on same course:

Jason Dufner in 2013 (Jim Furyk was runner-up).

Masters result:

-4.5 points.

 

Current market leaders as of early morning on 18/04/23 (Boyles – 10 Places):

  1. Jon Rahm – 7/1.
  2. Scottie Scheffler – 7/1.
  3. Rory McIlroy – 11/2.
  4. Patrick Cantlay – 14/1.
  5. Xander Schauffele – 14/1.
  6. Tony Finau – 16/1.
  7. Brooks Koepka – 20/1.
  8. Jason Day – 22/1.
  9. Viktor Hovland – 25/1.
  10. Dustin Johnson – 25/1.
  11. Justin Thomas – 25/1.
  12. Cameron Young – 25/1.
  13. Matthew Fitzpatrick – 28/1.
  14. Sungjae Im – 28/1.
  15. Collin Morikawa – 28/1.
  16. Cameron Smith – 28/1.
  17. Tyrell Hatton – 30/1.
  18. Max Homa – 30/1.
  19. Jordan Spieth – 30/1.
  20. Sam Burns – 33/1.

 

Past six winners (and runners up) of the US PGA:

  • Justin Thomas (Will Zalatoris).
  • Phil Mickelson (Brooks & Louis O).
  • Collin Morikawa (Paul Casey & Dustin Johnson).
  • Brooks Koepka (Dustin Johnson).
  • Brooks Koepka (Tiger Woods).
  • Justin Thomas (F Molinari, Louis O, Patrick Reed).

This year’s championship is giving me US Open vibes, as the course is long and hard. The rough is thick and the weather isn’t looking great. Strokes gained driving and scrambling will be key.

 

Past PGA experience – last four years (2022 – 2019):

  • Jon Rahm – T48, T8, T13, MC.
  • Scottie Scheffler – MC, T8, T4, N/A.
  • Rory McIlroy – 8th, T49, T33, T8.
  • Patrick Cantlay – MC, T23, T43, T3.
  • Xander Schauffele – T13, MC, T10, T16.
  • Tony Finau – T30, T8, T4, T64.
  • Brooks Koepka – T55, T2, T29, WIN.
  • Jason Day – T55, T44, T4, T23.
  • Viktor Hovland – T41, T30, T33, N/A.
  • Dustin Johnson – MC, MC, T2, 2nd.
  • Justin Thomas – WIN, MC, T37, N/A.
  • Cameron Young – T3.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick – T5, T23, MC, T41.
  • Sungjae Im – T17, MC, MC, N/A.
  • Collin Morikawa – T55, T8, WIN, N/A.
  • Cameron Smith – T13, T59, T43, T64.
  • Tyrell Hatton – T13, T38, MC, T48.
  • Max Homa – T13, MC, MC, T64.
  • Jordan Spieth – T34, T30, T71, T3.
  • Sam Burns – T20, N/A, T29, N/A.

Anyone with a win gets the ‘bold’ treatment, but Koepka, Scheffler and Morikawa stand a little above last year’s winner, Thomas, for overall consistency. Have to give props to Cameron Young as well for a T3 in his first PGA appearance. I will also note that Jason Day was runner up on this course in 2013 and has a T4 in 2020.

 

Form – past five tournaments played:

  • Jon Rahm – 2nd, T15, WIN, T31, WD.
  • Scottie Scheffler – T5, T11, T10, 4th, WIN.
  • Rory McIlroy – T47, MC, 3rd, MC, T2.
  • Patrick Cantlay – T21, T4, 3rd, T14, T9.
  • Xander Schauffele – 2nd, T4, 4th, T10, T5.
  • Tony Finau – T23, WIN, T31, T26, T17.
  • Brooks Koepka – 6th, 3rd, 19th, WIN, 29th (LIV Record).
  • Jason Day – WIN, MC, T39, T5, T19.
  • Viktor Hovland – T43, T59, T7, T31, T3.
  • Dustin Johnson – WIN, 25th, 10th, 7th, 13th (LIV Record).
  • Justin Thomas – T14, T25, MC, T10, T60.
  • Cameron Young – T59, T51, T7, 2nd, T51.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick – T35, T19, WIN, T10, T31.
  • Sungjae Im – T8, 6th, T7, T16, T17.
  • Collin Morikawa – MC, MC, T31, T10, T28.
  • Cameron Smith – 2nd, 7th, 4th, 29th, 26th (LIV Record)
  • Tyrell Hatton – T5, T3, T19, T34, MC.
  • Max Homa – T8, MC, MC, T43, T9.
  • Jordan Spieth – MC, 2nd, T4, T31, T3
  • Sam Burns – MC, T11, T15, T29, WIN.

Lots of guys are showing some slick form coming into this, including the favourite Rahm. Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele are as rock solid as they come when it comes to placing within or around the top ten. Shoutout too to Im and Hatton for incredibly good performances recently.

 

SG driving (Top 20 PGA Tour):

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Kevin Yu
  3. Patrick Cantlay
  4. Hayden Buckley
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Viktor Hovland
  7. Rory McIlroy
  8. Dean Burmester
  9. Luke List
  10. Gary Woodland
  11. Tyrrell Hatton
  12. Brent Grant
  13. Sungjae Im
  14. Cam Davis
  15. Davis Thompson
  16. Jon Rahm
  17. Brian Harman
  18. Cameron Champ
  19. Cameron Young
  20. Trevor Cone

Scottie Scheffler is on another planet when it comes to stats. I feel like I’m constantly highlighting him. Nice to see Cantlay, Hatton and Im popping up in another KPI.

 

SG Scrambling:

  1. Matt Kuchar
  2. Jason Day
  3. Tom Kim
  4. Hideki Matsuyama
  5. Brian Harman
  6. Maverick McNealy
  7. Danny Willett
  8. Cameron Percy
  9. J. Spaun
  10. Denny McCarthy
  11. Aaron Baddeley
  12. Andrew Putnam
  13. Eric Cole
  14. William McGirt
  15. Sungjae Im
  16. Adam Svensson
  17. Matt Fitzpatrick
  18. Jonathan Byrd
  19. Taylor Moore
  20. Thomas Detry

Scheffler is 21st, Hatton is 22nd, Schauffele is 27th and Rahm is 28th. Day is doing his bit to get a selection, as his win last week and second here in 2013 are big. Im popping up again!

 

Selections (EW 10 Places):

  • Jason Day – 0.5-point EW @ 22/1.
  • Xander Schauffele – 0.5-point EW @ 14/1.
  • Brooks Koepka 0.5-point EW @ 20/1.

Rahm and Scheffler are so short and really not that appealing. The three above were incredibly difficult to decide on, as Hatton, Im and Cantlay also caught my eye. The three selections are in form, have performed well on the PGA champ stage, and are generally performing well in the statistical categories I feel are necessary to win the thing (I’m guessing Brooks is at least doing well in strokes gained off the tee).

 

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