2023 Open Championship Preview

by | Jul 19, 2023 | Golf

US Open Result:

-1.8 points.

YTD Results:

+3.7 points.

Date:

  • 20th – 23rd July 2023.

Course:

  • Royal Liverpool Golf Course @ Hoylake.

Last time The Open was hosted at Royal Liverpool:

  • Winner – Rory McIlroy.

McIlroy recorded a score of 271 to finish on -17, two shots clear of Garcia and Fowler on -15.

 

Past six winners of The Open (runner up in brackets):

  • 2022 – Cameron Smith (Cameron Young)
  • 2021 – Collin Morikawa (Jordan Spieth)
  • 2020 – COVID
  • 2019 – Shane Lowry (Tommy Fleetwood)
  • 2018 – Francesco Molinari (Kevin K, Rory, Justin R, Xander)
  • 2017 – Jordan Spieth (Matt Kuchar)

The winner (and runner up) of The Open is generally one of the best iron players and ball strikers over the course of four days. The long iron shots and blustery conditions means that the purest ball strikers have the upper hand. Creativity, solid putting and a having a cool head in tricky conditions also goes along way.

 

Current odds – 10 places (as of 11:30pm on 18/07/2023 on Boyles)

  1. Rory McIlroy – 7/1
  2. Scottie Scheffler – 7/1
  3. Jon Rahm – 10/1
  4. Cameron Smith – 14/1
  5. Viktor Hovland – 18/1
  6. Brooks Koepka – 18/1
  7. Patrick Cantlay – 20/1
  8. Rickie Fowler – 20/1
  9. Tommy Fleetwood – 22/1
  10. Tyrell Hatton – 22/1
  11. Xander Schauffele – 22/1
  12. Shane Lowry – 25/1
  13. Collin Morikawa – 25/1
  14. Jordan Spieth – 25/1
  15. Matt Fitzpatrick – 33/1
  16. Tom Kim – 33/1
  17. Wyndham Clark – 40/1
  18. Max Homa – 40/1
  19. Robert MacIntyre – 40/1
  20. Justin Rose – 40/1

 

Past Open Experience – Last Five Years (2022 – 2017, 2020 N/A):

  1. Rory McIlroy – 3rd, T46, MC, T2, T4.
  2. Scottie Scheffler – T21, T8, N/A, N/A, N/A.
  3. Jon Rahm – T34, T3, T11, M/C, T44.
  4. Cameron Smith – WIN, T33, T20, T8, M/C.
  5. Viktor Hovland – T4, T12, N/A, N/A, N/A.
  6. Brooks Koepka – M/C, T6, T4, T39, T6.
  7. Patrick Cantlay – T8, M/C, T41, T12, N/A.
  8. Rickie Fowler – N/A, T53, T6, T28, T22.
  9. Tommy Fleetwood – T4, T33, 2nd, T12, T27.
  10. Tyrell Hatton – T11, M/C, T6, T51, M/C.
  11. Xander Schauffele – T15, T26, T41, T2, T20.
  12. Shane Lowry – T21, T12, WIN, M/C, M/C.
  13. Collin Morikawa – M/C, WIN, N/A, N/A, N/A.
  14. Jordan Spieth – T8, 2nd, T20, T9, WIN.
  15. Matt Fitzpatrick – T21, T26, T20, M/C, T44.
  16. Tom Kim – T47, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A.
  17. Wyndham Clark – T76, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A.
  18. Max Homa – M/C, T40, N/A, N/A, N/A.
  19. Robert MacIntyre – T34, T8, T6, N/A, N/A.
  20. Justin Rose – T46, T20, T2, T54, T22.

Few past winners in the top twenty of the betting, but McIlroy’s consistency of three top fives in the last five years stands out above the rest, when you consider this with his win here in 2014. Spieth and Koepka are next up, and you can’t fault Hovland’s or Morikawa’s first two years in the championship.

 

Form – Past Five Tournaments Played:

  1. Rory McIlroy – WIN, T7, 2nd, T9, T7.
  2. Scottie Scheffler – T3, T4, 3rd, 3rd, T3 (hasn’t finished outside the top 5 in his last 7 events)
  3. Jon Rahm – M/C, T10, T16, T50, 2nd.
  4. Cameron Smith – (US Open: 4th, USPGA: T9).
  5. Viktor Hovland – T25, T29, 19, WIN, T16.
  6. Brooks Koepka – (US Open: T17, USPGA: WIN).
  7. Patrick Cantlay – M/C, T4, T14, T30, T9.
  8. Rickie Fowler – T42, WIN, T13, T5, T9.
  9. Tommy Fleetwood – T6, M/C, T5, 2nd, M/C.
  10. Tyrell Hatton – T6, T27, T3, T12, T15.
  11. Xander Schauffele – T42, T19, T10, T24, T18.
  12. Shane Lowry – T12, T19, T20, T43, T16.
  13. Collin Morikawa – 2nd, M/C, T14, W/D, T29.
  14. Jordan Spieth – M/C, M/C, T5, M/C, T29.
  15. Matt Fitzpatrick – M/C, T49, T17, T20, T9.
  16. Tom Kim – T6, M/C, T38, T8, M/C.
  17. Wyndham Clark – T25, T29, WIN, T12, M/C.
  18. Max Homa – T12, T21, M/C, M/C, T9.
  19. Robert MacIntyre – 2nd, T4, T39, T18, T85.
  20. Justin Rose – M/C, M/C, 8th, T12, T9.

McIlroy and Scheffler are so far ahead of the rest in this category. Their consistency is on another planet, which is justifying the short odds of 7/1. Most of the rest and fairly even, but Fleetwood, MacIntyre and Fowler have been highlighted due to their very recent form.

 

Rating System (Top 25 of PGA Tour).

Greens in Regulation:

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Kevin Yu
  3. Jon Rahm
  4. Collin Morikawa
  5. Corey Conners
  6. Tom Kim
  7. Dylan Wu
  8. Russell Knox
  9. Will Gordon
  10. Patrick Cantlay
  11. Doug Ghim
  12. Aaron Rai
  13. Alex Smalley
  14. Trevor Cone
  15. Stephan Jaeger
  16. Rickie Fowler
  17. Vincent Norrman
  18. Tony Finau
  19. Xander Schauffele
  20. Joseph Bramlett
  21. Luke List
  22. Ben Martin
  23. Akshay Bhatia
  24. Nate Lashley
  25. Brice Garnett

 

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green:

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Jon Rahm
  4. Collin Morikawa
  5. Patrick Cantlay
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Tommy Fleetwood
  8. Rickie Fowler
  9. Tyrrell Hatton
  10. Viktor Hovland
  11. Xander Schauffele
  12. Corey Conners
  13. Kevin Yu
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Hideki Matsuyama
  16. Shane Lowry
  17. Max Homa
  18. Wyndham Clark
  19. Tom Kim
  20. Gary Woodland
  21. Justin Rose
  22. Jason Day
  23. Justin Thomas
  24. Aaron Rai
  25. Jordan Spieth

 

Strokes Gained Approach to The Green

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Collin Morikawa
  3. Jon Rahm
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Tom Hoge
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Rickie Fowler
  8. Rory McIlroy
  9. Gary Woodland
  10. Tom Kim
  11. Corey Conners
  12. Max Homa
  13. Shane Lowry
  14. Tyrrell Hatton
  15. Mark Hubbard
  16. Sepp Straka
  17. Justin Rose
  18. Hideki Matsuyama
  19. Viktor Hovland
  20. Si Woo Kim
  21. Kevin Roy
  22. Ben Martin
  23. Patrick Cantlay
  24. Akshay Bhatia
  25. Russell Knox

 

Past Course Experience (2014 Open Notables):

  • McIlroy – Win
  • Fowler – T2
  • Lowry – T9
  • DJ – T12
  • Justin Rose – T23

 

Selection:  

McIlroy – 2 points WIN @ 7/1 (my only bet this weekend).

This is it. This is his time. The win last week in the Scottish Open, his win here in 2014, and his overall consistency this year means I can’t get away from him. He looked like he wasn’t going to do it last week, but the birdies on the last two holes pulled it out of the fire. I think that’s huge for this week. It’s written in the stars.

Next Best:

  1. He is firmly back in form and his win in recent weeks at the Rocket Mortgage is great for the mental side of things. T2 here in 2014 doesn’t hurt either.
  2. 50%-win rate in Open Championships and one of the best iron players around.
  3. Had the Scottish Open snatched from his grasp last week. A Scottish boy well used to the links and a man in fairly hot form. Also has a T6 in the 2019 championship.

Outsider:

  • Brian Harman @ 90/1. Knocking around the top of the leaderboard quite a bit recently.

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