Course:

• Brookline Country Club

The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, is one of the oldest clubs in America and was one of the five founding clubs of the USGA. This will be the fourth time it has hosted the US Open, with the last being held in 1988. It’s also where Justin Leonard and the US Ryder Cup team controversially beat Europe in the 1999 Ryder Cup.

Date:

• 16^th – 19^th June

Standard enough weekend in June if you ask me.

Last time the US Open was hosted there:

• Champion – Curtis Strange

The 1988 US Open was the first of Strange’s back-to-back wins in the competition. The 1989 renewal was his last win on tour.

Last ‘big’ tournament held there:

• 2013 US Amateur. Champion – Matt Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick beat Aussie Oliver Goss 4/3 to claim the pinnacle of amateur golf.

Past five winners:

• Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Brooks Koepka.

There seems to be a clear type of player that wins the US Open – big and bold. It also takes a scrambler with a deft touch around the greens. The US Open is always set up in such an unforgiving way that if you hit it wild, you better be able to get it back in play and up and down. I have picked out the key areas I would look for in a golfer to win it. I excluded strokes gained from the fairway and strokes gained putting, as I went back and looked at the previous few winners’ stats. None were near the top in terms of putting, but all were top ten in strokes gained off the tee except for Brooksy.

Rating System (notables):

Strokes Gained off the Tee  (2022):

• Rahm – 1^st
• McIlroy – 3^rd
• Zalatoris – 6^th
• Conners – 8^th
• Fitzpatrick – 10^th
• Thomas 14^th
• Finau – 16^th
• Hovland – 17^th
• Cantlay – 18^th

No surprises here. All the long hitters are leading the strokes gained off the tee. All have consistently been at the top all year and it doesn’t look to be changing any time soon. You’ll see below I have also looked at driving distance and driving accuracy. The group is relatively the same for driving distance, but none feature in the top 20 in accuracy. I have picked out the best of the top 50, in terms of accuracy, for your consideration.

Driving Distance:

• McIlroy – 3^rd
• Rahm – 5^th
• Thomas – 13^th
• D Johnson – 14^th
• Zalatoris – 15^th
• Scheffler – 16^th
• Schauffele, Hovland, Spieth – 34^th, 38^th, 39^th

Driving Accuracy:

• Morikawa – 21^st
• Conners – 27^th
• Hovland – 38^th
• Fitzpatrick – 40^th
• Rahm – 44^th

Scrambling (Strokes Gained Around the Green)

• Fitzpatrick – 8^th
• Horschel – 13^th
• Cam Smith – 19^th
• Spieth & Thomas – 20^th
• McIlroy – 26^th
• Schauffele – 29^th
• Scheffler – 30^th

The rough will be long and it will be heavy. Undoubtedly, all of the pros will find themselves in a pinch off the tee and unable to either keep their ball on the green coming out of the rough or will have to lay up to it as close possible, with a tricky pitch likely ahead. Brookline is an unforgiving in land ‘linksy’ course and the winner will have to be on his game around the greens.

Past Course Experience:

• Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2013 US Amateur. Other than that tournament, the last competition played at The Country Club was the controversial 1999 Ryder Cup.

Just like the ponies in Cheltenham, I am a big fan of course form. Some courses just suit the eye and mind, and if you are going to win a golf competition, you need to feel comfortable on the track you’re playing at. The 2013 US Amateur was the last big competition played at the Brookline, so its not the best sample size, but Matt Fitzpatrick’s win in the biggest amateur tournament there is, is certainly a big plus for the English man.

Past US Open Experience – Last Five Years (2021 – 2017):

• Scheffler 11/1 – T7, N/A, MC, N/A, N/A
• Thomas 12/1 – T19, T8, MC, T25, T9
• McIlroy 12/1 – T7, T8, T9, MC, MC
• Rahm 12/1 – WIN, T23, T3, MC, MC
• Smith 18/1 – MC, T38, T72, MC, N/A
• Cantlay 20/1 – T15, T43, T21, T45, N/A
• Schauffele 20/1 – T7, 5th, T3, T6, T5
• Spieth 20/1 – T19, MC, T65, MC, T35
• Hovland 22/1 – WD, T13, T12, N/A, N/A
• Morikawa 22/1 – T4, MC, T35, N/A, N/A
• Zalatoris 22/1 – MC, T6, N/A, MC, N/A.
• Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1 – T55, MC, T12, T12, T35
• Lowry 25/1 – T65, T43, T28, MC, T46
• Koepka 28/1 – T4, N/A, 2^nd, WIN, WIN

I decided to look at the top 14 in the betting for US Open form. Although the course changes every year, the USGA set up all the courses relatively the same. They want it long and tough, with no forgiveness in the rough and on the greens. The last ten winning scores have been -6, -6, -13, +1, -16, -4, -5, -9, +1, +1. Koepka in 2017 and Woodland in 2019 are the outliers, but the rest are far removed from the -19 McIlroy won with in Canada last weekend. Out of the top 14 in the betting, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele and Koepka have the standout, consistent form over the last five years.

Form – Past Five Tournaments Played:

• McIlroy 9/1 – WIN, T18, 8th, 5^th, 2^nd
• Scheffler 11/1 – T18, 2^nd, MC, T15, T18
• Thomas 12/1 – 3rd, MC, WIN, T5, T35, T8
• Rahm 12/1 – T10, T48, WIN, T27, T9
• Smith 18/1 – T48, T13, T13, T21, MC
• Cantlay 20/1 – T3, MC, WIN, 2^nd, T39
• Schauffele 20/1 – T18, T13, T5, WIN, MC
• Spieth 20/1 – T18, T7, T34, 2^nd, WIN
• Hovland 22/1 – T51, T21, T41, T29, T27
• Morikawa 22/1 – MC, T40, T55, T29, T26
• Zalatoris 22/1 – T5, MC, 2^nd, MC, T4
• Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1 – T10, MC, T5, T2, MC
• Lowry 25/1 – T10, T32, T23, 13th, T3
• Koepka 28/1 – T55, MC, T27, T12, MC

Looking at the last five tournaments played, six of the top 14 have a win under their belt. McIlroy, Thomas, Rahm, Cantlay, Schauffele and Spieth have all been in the winner’s enclosure. I have also highlighted the form of Matt Fitzpatrick, as the three top tens in five starts is impressive in its own right.

Winner: Schauffele & McIlroy – 1-point ew (each)

Even though Schauffele hasn’t got over the major line yet, I am keen on him given his recent performances and his past US Open experience. He is also a major ew stalwart, so he is one of my picks for the chip. As a sensible gambler…. I will back him at 1-point ew at 20/1. I will also have a 1-point ew on McIlroy at 9/1 after his victory in the Canadian Open.

EW Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1 – 1-point ew

Fitzpatrick has course form, good recent form and is also another solid performer in the majors. He isn’t the longest hitter, but he is fairly accurate off the tee, so will hopefully keep himself out of the long stuff. Solid ew shout at 22/1.

Outside EW: Webb Simpson 80/1 – 0.5-point ew

The 2012 Champ missed the cut in last year’s rendition but was T8 in 2020, T16 in 2019 and T10 in 2018. He is in ok form with T27 and T20 in his last two comps, which isn’t setting the world alight, but he started hot in both of those and fell slightly away as the weekend went on. Hopefully he can hold it together in a comp he has had previous success in.